Which team will be the Winner of the FIFA World Cup 26?
France Is My Pick to Win It All—But Portugal Is the Team I Most Want to See Lift the Trophy
Now that the group stage of the FIFA World Cup 26™ has come to an end, it’s time for my tournament winner prediction.
From Here On, “Playing Well” Is No Longer Enough
Once the group stage is over, the atmosphere of the World Cup changes dramatically. Up to this point, it’s enough for people to say things like, “They’ve got momentum,” “They’re playing great football,” or “They’re stronger than expected.” But once the knockout stage begins, that’s no longer enough.
Every match determines whether you go home or stay alive. At this stage, being able to withstand difficult periods matters more than flashy attacking football. You can’t panic if you fail to score early. You can’t get carried away after taking the lead. Even when the momentum shifts to the opponent, you still have to put your body on the line when it matters most. In the end, every World Cup champion possesses this quiet kind of strength.
That’s why, even after the group stage, I’m not changing my prediction. I still have France as my favorite to win it all.
Favorite: France
The reason I’m backing France isn’t simply because they’re loaded with talent. Of course, their individual quality is exceptional. But more importantly, they possess the unpleasant kind of strength that’s required to actually win a World Cup.
France doesn’t have to dominate beautifully for 90 minutes to win. Even when they seem to be under pressure, they can suddenly destroy a match with a single attack. Just when the opponent starts thinking, “Maybe we’ve got a chance,” France hits them with overwhelming speed and intensity, bringing them back to reality.
In knockout football, this type of team is incredibly dangerous. More than teams that dominate possession or complete hundreds of passes, I believe the teams that can break their opponents’ spirit with only a few chances are the ones most likely to become champions.
On top of that, France has an excellent balance of youth and experience. They’re neither a team relying solely on veteran savvy nor one fueled only by youthful energy. Even if one player is slightly out of sync, someone else can force things back into place. This feeling of being “messy, yet incredibly strong” is a huge advantage in a short tournament.
Challenger: Portugal
That said, the team I most want to see lift the trophy is Portugal. The real Matsumoto is supporting Portugal in this World Cup, and I completely understand why.
Portugal feels less like a perfectly polished title favorite and more like a team that could swallow the entire world if everything clicks. They have talent. They have technical quality. They have players who can decide matches. The question is whether they can function as a single living organism.
What makes Portugal so fascinating is that they have a bit of excess. Rather than everyone fitting neatly into defined roles, individual brilliance appears from every corner of the pitch. Because of that, they may sometimes get in each other’s way. But at the same time, that congestion can suddenly produce an unbelievable breakthrough that nobody saw coming.
If I’m making a purely objective prediction, I’d pick France. But if you asked me which team I’d most like to watch in the final, Portugal would be near the top of my list.
The Dark Horse Isn’t the Team with Momentum—It’s the Team That Can Adapt
I think it’s a bit simplistic to label whichever team stood out in the group stage as the tournament’s dark horse. Winning by a large margin or having a superstar explode into form isn’t enough to survive the knockout rounds.
The teams that are truly dangerous are the ones that can change their identity from match to match. They don’t cling to what worked in the previous game. Instead, they subtly adjust their balance depending on the opponent. They may not be flashy, but they know how to control a match through defensive positioning, pressing, and well-timed substitutions.
The World Cup may look like a tournament driven by momentum, but it’s actually a tournament won through adaptation. Teams that charge ahead with the same intensity from start to finish are less frightening than teams that can evolve after struggling.
About Japan
I don’t think the Japan national team is at the stage where simply putting up a good fight is considered an achievement anymore. Individually, their players compete at a high level every week. As a team, they’ve steadily built a solid foundation. They’ve also proven they can beat world-class opponents. That matters a lot.
That said, when it comes to predicting them as champions, I’m still a bit cautious. Reaching the Round of 16 is realistic, and making the quarterfinals is absolutely within reach. I understand the romantic idea that they could even make the final. But to actually win the World Cup, it’s not about reaching your peak for just one match—it’s about absorbing the pressure from elite opponents over multiple consecutive games.
If Japan can overcome that hurdle, then we’ll have to start describing them in completely different terms.
Conclusion
At the end of the group stage, my prediction to win the World Cup remains France.
The reason is that they have the best overall balance of explosive attacking ability, defensive resilience, and the capacity to grind out victories even when they’re not at their best. Portugal is my second choice. If I were choosing with my heart, I’d love to see Portugal become champions. But as a prediction, France remains my favorite.
The World Cup isn’t always won by the team that plays the prettiest football. The team left standing at the very end is the one that can take away its opponent’s strengths while never losing its own ability to deliver a decisive blow. I believe this France side has exactly that kind of ruthless strength.
Digital MATSUMOTO